Two weeks ago, in a race over the same distance, the performance was poor, leading easily with a steady pace but lacking any finishing kick. This time, the horse has a three-pound weight reduction and previous records at this distance are respectable; comparable times within the group suggest it’s competitive. It should be able to challenge for the lead despite drawing a less favorable barrier. As long as it jumps cleanly, aiming for an early lead should see it finish among the frontrunners.