Two weeks ago, this horse ran poorly over the same distance, taking an early lead but fading in the middle stages. This time with a five-pound weight reduction, the opposition appears weak. The barrier draw is unfavorable and there’s limited synergy between trainer and jockey. Despite having previously secured three wins at this distance, despite being capable of leading, the chance of success remains low even with a good barrier position and a jockey who has some familiarity with the horse's capabilities through preparation work.