Two weeks ago, over this same distance, the horse ran decently, settling in a good position tracking the leaders and making a mid-race move. He maintained a strong pace throughout but finished fourth. This time with a two-pound weight reduction, despite three previous losses at this course and distance, he's drawn an outside barrier which is unfavorable. Fortunately, his group’s overall times aren’t significantly slower; he has the potential to track the leaders. If he jumps cleanly, and they commit to staying close, he could improve his position.